The ten lost tribes of ancient kingdom of Israel were Asher, Dan, Ephraim, Gad, Issachar, Manasseh, Naphtali, Reuben, Simeon, and Zebulun. Many ask, “What became of these lost tribes?” Their descendants are certainly with us today! But where? The question is, can we successfully identify the descendants of the lost ten tribes of Israel and, if so, how?
Their Prophetic Legacy
Genesis 48-49 provides the prophetic legacy of the tribes of Israel. It was nationhood. More specifically, the tribe of Joseph through his sons Manasseh and Ephraim, were to become a great nation and a company of nations (Genesis 48:15-19). The other tribes were to become independent nations as well. While the NASB, RSV, and NIV place the fulfillment of this legacy “in days to come,” the NKJV says “in the last days.” The Darby Translation reads “in the end of days” (DBY) and Young’s Literal Translation has “in the latter end of days” (YLT).
The Hebrew phrase at Genesis 49:1 is hay·yā·mîm bə·’a·ḥă·rîṯ meaning in translation “the days in last” or “the end of days.” The phrase points to the international status of the descendants of Jacob (Israel) at the end of the age of mankind. This end of days is the timeframe which the New Testament places immediately before the Millennial reign of the resurrected Jesus Christ and the Kingdom of God (Acts 2:17, 2 Timothy 3:1, Hebrews 1:2, James 5:3, 2 Peter 3:3). We live in these last days. This being the case, we should be able to find the descendants of the ten tribes in our contemporary world.
According to geneticist Jon Entine, in his Abraham’s Children: Race, Identity, and the DNA of the Chosen People, “The genetic legacy of ancient Israelites is…preserved in millions of unbelievers, Christians, and Muslims destined to carry their biblical inheritance forever in their genes” (Entine, 2007, p. 20). Nevertheless, nearly all the literature dealing with the fate of the Israelite tribes suggest either their absorption into Gentile populations, where they perished as an independent people with their genes swamped and their culture abandoned, or their assent to nationhood as the United States, the British, and certain northern European peoples. But in our present world, the equation of America, Britain, and northern European nations with specific Israelite tribes sounds preposterous. Nevertheless, for some it serves to impart an exciting prophetic hermeneutic for understanding why the world is the way it is and what is going to happen in the course of future events.
While such thinking is sometimes attacked as nonscientific, racist or ethnocentric, or simply ridiculed as contradictory, and speculative, it does not negate the fact that hundreds of thousands of Israelites experienced deportation to ancient Assyria where they settled and had descendants. While the Assyrian empire declined and eventually collapsed with the rise of the Neo-Babylonian (Chaldean) empire the Israelites grew from tribes into peoples. They continued to live, have children, and grandchildren while slowly migrating westward into Europe.
Their descendants are with us today! But where? This leads us to consider the epistemological question, what we can know and how we can know it? Can we successfully identify the descendants of the the lost ten tribes of Israel and their prophetic national identity as peoples? If so, how? Some seek a genetic solution through DNA analysis and others rely on historical data.
In this analysis, we will first focus on the biblical data bearing on the population of the ten northern tribes forming the kingdom of Israel and projecting the population growth of their progeny. Then, in Part 2 of this article, we will compare these projections with 2020 national population data reflecting on the implications of ethnicity on Israelite identity.
Biblical Census Data
Following the death of King Solomon (king, 2792-2831 AM), in 931 BCE at the age of 80 during his 40th reginal year, the northern tribes of Israel separated from the southern tribes of Judah at the beginning of the reign of his son Rehoboam. When the ten northern tribes formed their independent kingdom of Israel, the United Monarchy of David and Solomon collapsed. The southern tribes of Judah, Benjamin and Levi then became the small kingdom of Judah.
Two hundred years later, the kingdom of Israel fell to Shalmaneser V. Under his command, the Assyrian army took the Israelite homeland of Samaria, and its capital city also known as Samaria, in the summer of 722 BCE, a few months before his death. The first year of his successor Sargon II began Nisan 1 in 721 BCE. Interestingly, in an apparent appropriation of honor for himself, Sargon minimized the successes of his predecessor Shalmaneser. Jack Finegan (1908-2000), late Professor of New Testament History and Archaeology at the Pacific School of Religion, Berkeley, states in his revised edition of the Handbook of Biblical Chronology, that “In some of his own late inscriptions Sargon II claims that at the beginning of his rule…he captured Samaria, carried off 27,290 people from it, and resettled the city” (Finegan, 1998, p. 250).
By order of the Assyrian conquerors, most of Israel’s inhabitants were transported and detained in Assyria as captives, exiles, and slaves in the original Diaspora. These captives became known as the ten lost tribes. At the time, a remnant of the northern tribes fled to the south as refugees and joined others in the Kingdom of Judah.
Evidence in the Hebrew Scriptures confirming that a remnant of Israel’s population escaped to the southern kingdom of Judah comes partly from the mention of Israel in Judah’s history, about a century later, during the reign of Judah’s King Josiah (639-609 BCE). The Levites who took up the tithes and offerings of the people, “came to Hilkiah the high priest and delivered the money that was brought into the house of God, which the Levites, [as] the doorkeepers, had collected from Manasseh and Ephraim, and from all the remnant of Israel, and from all Judah and Benjamin and the inhabitants of Jerusalem” (bracketed insertion mine), (2 Chronicles 34:9 NASB).
Further, we are told, “There had not been celebrated a Passover [festival] like it in Israel since the days of Samuel the prophet; nor had any of the kings of Israel celebrated such a Passover as Josiah did with the priests, the Levites, all Judah and Israel who were present, and the inhabitants of Jerusalem” (bracketed insertion mine); (2 Chronicles 35:18 NASB). Josiah “gathered all Judah and Benjamin and those from Ephraim, Manasseh and Simeon who resided with them, for many defected to him from Israel when they saw that the LORD his God was with him” (2 Chronicles 15:9 NASB).
This Passover occurred in in a Sabbatical year and the year of the 16th Jubilee 623/622 BCE (3139 AM) a full century (100 years) after the fall of the northern kingdom and deportation of its people (see 2 Chronicles 25:19; 2 Kings 22:3-7; 23:21-23). Extant archaeological evidence showing rapid growth of new neighborhoods and building programs in Jerusalem at that time attests to the influx of many dispossessed refugees of the northern kingdom seeking refuge in Judah rather than being deported to Assyria. Hence the people known as the Judeans or Judah involved some admixture of the tribes.
Jacob and His Family
A thousand years earlier, the biblical patriarch Jacob (Israel) and his family moved from Canaan to Egypt due to a severe famine. They settled in pharaonic Egypt during the time of the Hyksos, known as Egypt’s Fifteenth Dynasty. Their arrival in Lower Egypt was in 1685 BCE, after the second year of the famine, having spent some 190 years in Canaan.
So began the final 240 years (1685-1446 BCE) of their 430-year long sojourn (to stay or dwell in a place for a short period of time) in Canaan and Egypt (Exodus 12:40). The sojourn did not run from when the promise that Abraham’s descendants were to possess the land of Canaan was made (Genesis 15:18-21), but with the year God gave Abraham and Sarah their son Isaac. They began their residence in Egypt exactly 190 years, following the birth of Isaac in 1875 BCE, ending with the Exodus in 1446 BCE.
The 430-year sojourn included the time the Israelites resided in Egypt but their time in Canaan as well. While Exodus 12:40 reads, “Now the sojourn of the children of Israel who lived in Egypt was four hundred and thirty years” (Exodus 12:40 NKJV), the Hebrew text does not state or require that the sojourning apply only to their time in Egypt. The Septuagint reads, “And the sojourning of the children of Israel, while they sojourned in the land of Egypt and the land of Chanaan [Canaan], four hundred and thirty years” (bracketed insertion mine); (Exodus 12:40 LXX). The Israelite Samaritan Version of the Torah reads, “And the time that the Sons of Yishraael and their forefathers dwelt in the land of Kannan [Canaan] and in the land of Missrem [Egypt] was four hundred and thirty years” (bracketed insertions mine); (Tsedaka, B., 2013, The Israelite Samaritan Version of the Torah: First English Translation Compared with the Masoretic Version. Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, p. 155).
Genesis 46:8-27 reports the number of the descendants of Jacob who came to live in Egypt, excluding his daughters-in-law, as 66. Adding Jacob, for he was not his own offspring, and Joseph and his two sons, for they already resided in Egypt, brings the total to 70 (Genesis 46:27). For our purposes, this figure of 70 people in 1686 BCE serves as the initial population for all the people of Israel (all the original family members excluding the daughters-in-law).
The Exodus
From the 70 original settlers, the population of Israel’s progenies rapidly multiplied. At the time of the Exodus, the Israelites numbered “about six hundred thousand men on foot, aside from children. A mixed multitude also went up with them [on their journey out of Egypt], along with flocks and herds, a very large number of livestock” (bracketed insertion mine) (Exodus 12:37-38 NASB).
Robert Jamieson in his commentary writes:
“Assuming, what is now ascertained by statistical tables, that the number of males above that age is as nearly as possible the half of the total number of males, the whole male population of Israel, on this computation, would amount to 1,200,000; and adding an equal number for women and children, the aggregate number of Israelites who left Egypt would be 2,400,000.”
Jamieson, 2016, p. 125; Jamieson, 2016, p. 355
Using the JFB estimate of 2,400,000 Israelites leaving Egypt in the Exodus and the reported figure of 70 Israelites originally settling in Lower Egypt in 1685 BCE, we can ascertain an approximate average annual growth rate of the Israelite population for this 240 year period. Applying these data provides an estimated 4.466047% growth per annum for the people of Israel from 1685-1446 BCE showing that the Israelite population grew rapidly. Exodus 1:7 provides a glimpse of its magnitude.
“But the sons of Israel were fruitful and increased greatly, and multiplied, and became exceedingly mighty, so that the land was filled with them.”
Exodus 1:7 NASB
The Egyptian reaction was panic. Pharaoh Ahmose I determined to remove any threat of an Israelite revolt or insurrection while ensuring their remaining as workers in the Egyptian labor force.
“He said to his people, ‘Behold, the people of the sons of Israel are more and mightier than we. ‘Come, let us deal wisely with them, or else they will multiply and in the event of war, they will also join themselves to those who hate us, and fight against us and depart from the land.”
Exodus 1:9-10 NASB
The Egyptians proceeded to reduce the Israelite population to slavery, poverty, and hopelessness. Nevertheless, in 1446 BCE, God delivered them from Egyptian slavery in an exodus from the land of Egypt.
The Wilderness and Conquest Census
Following the Exodus, in anticipation of a military invasion of Canaan, God ordered a census. Moses and his associates were to determine by tribe the military eligibility of the Israelites aged 20 and above by counting those who were able to serve in war (Numbers 1:3). This census taken in Iyyar 2316 AM (April/May 1445 BCE), the second month of the second year after the Exodus (Numbers 1:1). The tribe of Judah ranked as the largest tribe with 74,600 fighting men (Numbers 1:27). The census reported the tribes of Ephraim, Manasseh, and Benjamin, the descendants of Jacob and Rachel, as the smallest of the tribes. The census reported the number of men twenty years old and upward able to go to war as 603,550 (Numbers 1:47). The tribe of Levi was not included in the census as Levites were exempt from military service. Numbers 3:39 gives the number of Levites at 22,000. When 12 spies were chosen from the fighting men to surveil the land of Canaan the Levites were exempt as well.
Table A Wilderness Census Data Comparison
| Tribes | Chap. 1 | Chap. 26 | Increase | Decrease |
| Reuben | 46,500 | 43,730 | — | 2,770 |
| Simeon | 59,300 | 22,200 | — | 37,100 |
| Gad | 45,650 | 40,500 | — | 5,150 |
| Judah | 74,600 | 76,500 | 1,900 | — |
| Issachar | 54,400 | 64,300 | 9,900 | — |
| Zebulun | 57,400 | 60,500 | 3,100 | — |
| Ephraim | 40,500 | 32,500 | — | 8,000 |
| Manasseh | 32,200 | 52,700 | 20,500 | — |
| Benjamin | 35,400 | 45,600 | 10,200 | — |
| Dan | 62,700 | 64,400 | 1,700 | — |
| Asher | 41,500 | 53,400 | 11,900 | — |
| Naphtali | 53,400 | 45,400 | — | 8,000 |
| Total | 603,550 | 601,730 | 59,200 | 61,020 |
| Total decrease | 1,820 |
The selection of a warrior from each tribe of the fighting men (the army) provided 12 spies to infiltrate Canaan and conduct reconnaissance. On returning from spying out the land, ten spies gave a bad report (Numbers 13:31-33) resulting in the people murmuring (grumbling and complaining or in modern parlance bellyaching) against the leadership of Moses. Numbers 14:29-31 records God’s condemnation:
“The carcasses of you who have complained against Me shall fall in this wilderness, all of you who were numbered, according to your entire number, from twenty years old and above. Except for Caleb the son of Jephunneh and Joshua the son of Nun, you shall by no means enter the land which I swore I would make you dwell in. But your little ones, whom you said would be victims, I will bring in, and they shall know the land which you have despised.”
Numbers 14:29-31 NKJV
When king David ordered a census about 425 years later, ca. 981 BCE, he found the population of fighting men to be 1,300,000. Of Israel (the northern tribes), there were 800,000 men trained for war and 500,000 of Judah (the southern tribes) respectively (2 Samuel 24:9). Using the same ratios as JFB above, this would suggest a population four times the number of fighting men. This sets the estimated total population of the United Monarchy of David and Solomon at 5,200,000.
Israelite Population in the Early First Century CE
In the Herodian era, significant Jewish centers in the Diaspora existed all over the Roman world, to the east as far as India, and south into Ethiopia. The Jewish population of the Roman Empire west of Judea, as understood by Sir Martin Gilbert (a British historian), was “over six million, of whom a million lived in Egypt, mostly in Alexandria” (Gilbert, 1992, p. 12). James P. Carroll (American author, historian, and journalist) notes that “Jews accounted for 10 percent of the total population of the Roman Empire” (Carroll, 2001, p. 26). The Jewish population in the Latin-speaking western part of the Roman Empire was small and scattered, and clustered in Jewish neighborhoods of Roman cities and settlements.
Historian Paul Johnson suggests that Jews in the Diaspora outnumbered the settled Jews of Judea and Galilee by perhaps 4.5 million to 1 million (Johnson P. , 1976, p. 12). Wayne A. Meeks (Yale University Woolsey Emeritus Professor) held that in the first century some 5 to 6 million Jews lived in the Diaspora. These lived permanently outside of Judea and Galilee. A substantial Jewish population, from about 10 to 15 percent of the total population, existed in virtually every town of any size in the lands of the Mediterranean (Meeks, 1983, p. 34).
Table B Population Projections for the northern (Israel) and southern (Judah) tribes
| Year | Judah (southern tribes) | Israel (northern tribes) | Population | Growth per Annum to Next Population Level |
| 1685 BCE (Israel settles in Egypt | ——— | ——— | 70 | 4.466047% |
| 1446 BCE (Exodus) | 2,400,000 | 0.000% | ||
| 1406 BCE (Entry into Canaan) | 2.400,000 | 0.1815% | ||
| 981 BCE (David’s Census) | 2,000,000 | 3,200,000 | 5,200,000 | 0.17756% |
| 30 CE (Herodian Period) | 9,000,000 | 14,400,000 | 23,400,000 | 0.17756% |
| 2030 CE (Modern World Projection) | 52,118,297 | 500,335,653 | 552,453,950 |
When king David ordered a census ca. 981 BCE, he found the population of fighting men to be 1,300,000. Of Israel (the northern tribes), there were 800,000 men trained for war and 500,000 of Judah (the southern tribes) respectively (2 Samuel 24:9). At the time the Israelites crossed the River Jordan in 1406 BCE they numbered about 2,400,000 based as discussed above on the enumeration of 601,730 fighting men. This level of population growth required an annual growth rate of 0.1815% from their entry into Canaan.
While exact figures do not exist, there were perhaps as many as nine million Jews worldwide in 30 CE. In the Diaspora, Jews were to be found all over the Roman world and east as far as India and south into Ethiopia. The Jewish population of the Roman Empire west of Judea, as understood by Sir Martin Gilbert was “over six million, of whom a million lived in Egypt, mostly in Alexandria” (Gilbert, 1992, p. 12). James P. Carroll notes that “Jews accounted for 10 percent of the total population of the Roman Empire” (Carroll, 2001, p. 26).
For the Jewish descendants to reach a population of 9,000,000 in 30 CE required an annual growth rate of 0.17756% from the time of David’s census. Comparatively, population growth in the regions that eventually became part of the Roman Empire saw an average annual population growth of about 0.1% from the 12th century BCE to the 3rd century CE.
Projecting the growth of the descendants from the northern tribes of Israel, there seems to be no reason to reject the to 0.17756% growth rate for them as well. This would suggest the descendants of the northern tribes as 14,400,000. Thus arises the question of where these people are today and what nationalities they represent. Keeping the 0.17756% growth rate for them, would bring the present day descendants of the northern tribes to about 491,537,839 people as of 2020 CE, the majority of which, based on biblical prophecy, to be found in North America, Western Europe, and Australia.
The projection for 2030 CE is 552,453,950 people (52,118,297 descendants of the southern tribes and 500,335,653 descendants of the northern tribes). In simple terms, due to admixture and the laws of genetics many descendants of the Lost Ten Tribes may not be who you think they would be. Part 2 will address this issue.
To be continued.
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